Thanks for your expert coverage. As you know from a comment much earlier and prior to the tournament, I'm not watching any of the matches as a protest against FIFA corruption (probably a lost cause) and Qatar human rights violations. It was disappointing to see my team go out yesterday against Argentina but maybe predictable. One of the things that is contributing to this tournament is the very real lack of preparation as club seasons didn't stop until maybe 9-10 days before the first match day. This puts real pressure on managers particularly if they plan on playing a system that players are not used to. Most of the Dutch players come from teams that play 4-3-3 and some of them play up tempo high pressure football. This is markedly different from what van Gaal had them playing.
You don't mention it but from what I read on-line this was the worst refereed match of the tournament. Players and supporters deserve better (though I'm sure Argentina are happy with the result.).
I know you have said previously you see penalties as more towards a lottery, but I wonder if data can tell us anything about penalty order? I suspect there just aren’t enough shootouts to make for reliable data?
I get a little annoyed at the criticism of saving the ‘best’ penalty taker until last, because to me, it makes sense to save your best taker for the penalty most likely to be the highest pressure?
If you think a player is a little more likely to bottle their penalty, saving them for the 5th penalty surely only increases their chances of missing?
Maybe it’s something to overthink because these types of ‘everything’ penalties are so rare you can’t really do much planning.
Thanks for your expert coverage. As you know from a comment much earlier and prior to the tournament, I'm not watching any of the matches as a protest against FIFA corruption (probably a lost cause) and Qatar human rights violations. It was disappointing to see my team go out yesterday against Argentina but maybe predictable. One of the things that is contributing to this tournament is the very real lack of preparation as club seasons didn't stop until maybe 9-10 days before the first match day. This puts real pressure on managers particularly if they plan on playing a system that players are not used to. Most of the Dutch players come from teams that play 4-3-3 and some of them play up tempo high pressure football. This is markedly different from what van Gaal had them playing.
You don't mention it but from what I read on-line this was the worst refereed match of the tournament. Players and supporters deserve better (though I'm sure Argentina are happy with the result.).
I know you have said previously you see penalties as more towards a lottery, but I wonder if data can tell us anything about penalty order? I suspect there just aren’t enough shootouts to make for reliable data?
I get a little annoyed at the criticism of saving the ‘best’ penalty taker until last, because to me, it makes sense to save your best taker for the penalty most likely to be the highest pressure?
If you think a player is a little more likely to bottle their penalty, saving them for the 5th penalty surely only increases their chances of missing?
Maybe it’s something to overthink because these types of ‘everything’ penalties are so rare you can’t really do much planning.